As Slovakia fractures under the weight of political distrust, disinformation, and foreign influence, a landmark CEDMO survey reveals that nearly one in five citizens support a Russian victory in Ukraine, over 40% believe in an ongoing coup attempt, and trust in democratic institutions has collapsed—fuelled by Prime Minister Robert Fico’s unsubstantiated claims that anti-government protests are foreign-financed. The demonstrations, triggered by Fico’s visit to Moscow and anti-NATO rhetoric, have been met with baseless allegations from state officials, including claims that protesters are Ukrainian operatives linked to cyberattacks. Backed by state-aligned media, conspiracy theories have taken root—particularly among older and less-educated Slovaks—while party loyalties reflect stark geopolitical divides: SMER and far-right voters overwhelmingly back Russia, opposition supporters stand firmly with Ukraine. Despite this disinformation crisis, Slovaks rank inflation, inequality, and energy as their top concerns, highlighting the disconnect between public fears and political messaging. The country now stands at a crossroads—drifting from its Western orientation, vulnerable to manipulation, and increasingly divided along generational and ideological lines.
The CEDMO Special Brief outlines a troubling trend: Slovak civil society is increasingly vulnerable to the influence of conspiracy theories and foreign manipulation. These narratives are actively shaping public attitudes toward current political events, particularly among older populations and those with lower levels of education. One of the most prevalent false claims—that Western countries are plotting a coup d’état to unseat Fico’s government—was recognised by 44% of Czech respondents, with 37% deeming it credible. The notion finds particular traction among Slovaks who support Russia’s role in Ukraine, raising red flags about the penetration of foreign influence and the normalisation of disinformation within public discourse.
This is not just a question of individual belief. These narratives undermine advocacy for government accountability and confuse the lines between civic action and foreign interference. Prime Minister Fico’s frequent references to opposition-led coup attempts, despite being dismissed by 54% of the Slovak population as mere deflection, feed into these conspiratorial interpretations. They blur the distinction between legitimate dissent and destabilisation, weakening public resilience against authoritarian rhetoric. Remarkably, 42% of Slovak respondents say they believe a real coup is indeed underway, led by opposition forces and foreign actors—further evidence of how polarised interpretations of reality have become.
The government has reinforced these divisions through an escalating series of accusations against protesters. Since January 2025, regular anti-government demonstrations have erupted in response to Fico’s visit to Moscow and the coalition’s inflammatory anti-NATO and anti-EU rhetoric. The government has labelled these protests as a foreign-financed coup attempt, with the Minister of the Interior claiming—without evidence—that one-third of participants are Ukrainian nationals and that protest leaders are connected to cyberattacks and the Georgian Legion. Fact-checkers have since disproven these claims, but they continue to circulate widely in pro-government circles, fuelling public paranoia and reinforcing the idea of a besieged nation under external threat.
New polling data deepens the picture: nearly one-fifth of the Slovak population—18.6%—actively wishes for Russia to win the war in Ukraine. In stark contrast, only 32.1% support a Ukrainian victory, while an additional 33% favour a temporary peace settlement with no clear winner. This ideological split over the war is not only polarising but correlates strongly with party affiliation and voter identity. Among voters of Fico’s SMER party, just 4% support a Ukrainian victory, while 43% openly back Russia. Pro-Russian sentiment is even more pronounced among voters of Republika (44%) and SNS (31%), while Ukrainian support remains in single digits for both. In contrast, opposition party supporters show dominant pro-Ukraine leanings: Progressive Slovakia voters back Ukraine at a rate of 75%, followed by Demokrati (63%), KDH (53%), and SaS (50%).
These affiliations also reflect deeper demographic divides. Only 7% of Slovaks aged 16–24 favour a Russian victory, while over 26% of those aged 65 and older do. Men are significantly more likely than women to support Ukraine (38.5% vs. 26%), while women are more inclined to support a neutral peace settlement or express uncertainty.
Media Freedom Eroding under Narrative Control
Disinformation is not only widespread—it is systemic. The report connects the spread of false and misleading information to media control efforts by political elites. This includes anti-NATO and anti-EU messaging, the amplification of disinformation via state-aligned actors, and open scepticism about Western diplomatic intentions. Several demonstrably false narratives continue to circulate online, including the claim that Russia made no territorial demands and simply sought Ukrainian neutrality, or that Western powers deliberately blocked peace talks in spring 2022. Slovak politicians have also repeated misleading assertions that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s mandate has expired—despite Ukrainian laws that suspend elections during wartime.
Fact-checkers flagged several coordinated campaigns: disinformation surrounding U.S.-Russia negotiations, insinuations that anti-government protests are orchestrated by foreign actors, and an inflammatory narrative alleging that the 2023 electoral outcome is under threat from Western-backed regime change operations. In this environment, Slovak citizens increasingly rely on social media for news—platforms where 53% of respondents express distrust. This paradox highlights the vulnerability of public debate to manipulation when independent journalism is weakened or delegitimised. Disinformation is not only a domestic issue. In the Czech Republic, doctored images have falsely depicted Slovak opposition leaders with George Soros to suggest a protest conspiracy, while high-profile Czech protestors have been smeared as former secret police informants—accusations debunked but still widely circulated.
Trust in Institutions Collapsing
The report documents a crisis of confidence in Slovak institutions. A majority of citizens do not trust the government (54%), the parliament (54%), the Slovak Information Service (50%), political parties (51%), or churches (49%). In contrast, the armed forces remain the most trusted institution (42%), pointing to a worrying militarisation of credibility in a democratic state. Trust in traditional media stands at 37%, the EU and NATO at 36%, and the president also at 36%. These trust levels vary significantly by age and education: the armed forces are most trusted by men and citizens over 65, while younger, university-educated Slovaks express greater confidence in the EU.
This erosion of institutional trust correlates with demographic divides. Older citizens (65+) show greater support for Fico’s government and its narratives, while younger citizens (16–24) are more sceptical and more supportive of early elections—60% of them back this solution to the current crisis. In total, 43% of the population sees early elections as the best way forward, although only 31% of the 65+ demographic agrees. The generational divide extends to perceptions of President Peter Pellegrini, whose neutrality is judged favourably by 58% of those over 65 but only 40% overall. Another 40% of respondents reject the idea that Pellegrini is impartial, underscoring the divisiveness of his role.
Rule of Law and Transparency at Stake
Beneath the political rhetoric lies a deeper concern: the abuse of power and the deterioration of democratic checks and balances. The government’s use of inflammatory language to deflect criticism, combined with its attacks on civil society and its ambiguity on foreign policy, raises alarms about corruption, transparency, and political propaganda.
Fico’s trip to Moscow and his coalition’s anti-Western statements suggest a drift away from the EU’s core values. Disinformation about a Western-backed coup not only disrupts internal cohesion but also undermines Slovakia’s international credibility. As the population’s confidence wanes, so does the resilience of the country’s democratic institutions against manipulation from both internal and external actors. At the same time, Slovaks are contending with mounting domestic challenges. According to the CEDMO survey, the most pressing issues identified by respondents include the state budget deficit (15%), inflation (12%), the energy crisis (10%), and economic inequality (9%). Despite its prominence in political debate, disinformation ranks last—just 1% cited it as the country’s most serious problem, underscoring the gap between perception and impact.
Strategic Perspective: Disinformation and the Security Vacuum
The CEDMO report demonstrates how disinformation campaigns directly weaken democratic defence mechanisms, creating a strategic vacuum that hostile powers—particularly Russia—can exploit. The fact that 67% of those who want Russia to win the war in Ukraine also believe in the Western coup narrative reflects a dangerous convergence of disinformation, foreign allegiance, and domestic political support.
More broadly, Slovaks express deep scepticism about foreign influence in national affairs. More than half of respondents (54%) believe the EU significantly influences Slovak politics, followed by the United States (45%) and Russia (44%). Citizens under 24 are more likely to perceive Russian interference, while those over 65 are more concerned about Western involvement. Supporting Ukraine is not just a moral imperative; it is a strategic necessity to counter the spread of this type of influence in the region. Failing to address Slovakia’s internal vulnerabilities—especially its information environment—risks emboldening those who seek to dismantle Europe’s democratic security architecture.
Source: CEDMO Trends | Charles University | IPSOS
